Jefferies Says Shopify Is Built for the Age of AI

A Buy upgrade and $160 target argue Shopify is positioned as the infrastructure layer for agentic commerce

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) rose 3.15% in premarket after Jefferies upgraded the e-commerce platform to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $160 from $140. The stock closed Friday at $122.54, implying a 31% upside potential.

Jefferies said Shopify is positioned to become the infrastructure layer for agentic commerce (AI agents that autonomously complete purchases on behalf of consumers) and the agent enablement toolkit for merchants, giving the company a path to capture incremental gross merchandise volume and expand its role upstream in product discovery as agents increasingly intermediate the buyer journey. The upgrade also reflects structural changes to Shopify's partner commission model, effective August 2026. The company is tying earnouts directly to value created on the platform, which Jefferies said incentivizes partners to sign larger merchants and invest more in post-launch success.

The changes cap the commission stream and push partners toward new logo acquisition and cross-selling rather than relying on annuity-like revenue, improving long-term unit economics. B2B, point-of-sale, and Shopify Components are expected to receive greater partner focus as a result.