ANDY WALKER: Is a Green wave headed for P.E.I.?

Is another Green wave about to hit the shores of Prince Edward Island? You might recall that in the months leading up to the 2019 election that produced a minority government for Dennis King, then Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker led every public opinion poll with a margin that kept growing almost by the day. There [...]

Is another Green wave about to hit the shores of Prince Edward Island? You might recall that in the months leading up to the 2019 election that produced a minority government for Dennis King, then Green leader Peter Bevan-Baker led every public opinion poll with a margin that kept growing almost by the day. There were predictions he could become the first Green premier in Canadian history.

It didn’t quite work out that way, although he did become the first Green leader of the Opposition, improving the party’s seat count from two to eight. His efforts to work with the other parties to build a more congenial atmosphere in the legislature bore fruit, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, voters rewarded the King government and the Greens fell back to two seats and third party status in the 2023 election.

Their lone electoral victory since that time has been the election of their current leader Matt MacFarlane in a byelection in Borden-Kinkora. Now, it appears he may be leading a second Green wave. Narrative Research A quarterly poll conducted by Narrative Research shows the Greens would be the choice of 40 per cent of voters if an election were held today.

That is an increase of 10 points from the last quarterly poll in March. The Liberals were the choice of 19 per cent of respondents while the governing Progressive Conservatives were third at 13 per cent. MacFarlane was the choice of 51 per cent of the respondents when they were asked who would make the best premier.

Premier Rob Lantz and Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell were neck and neck at 11 and 10 per cent respectively. First, a few words of caution. P.E.I. is one of the toughest places in the country to conduct polls due to our small population.

Given the small sample size (147) and the fact this was an online poll where participants didn’t interact with an actual pollster are valid reasons to take the results with a grain of salt. That being said, results have to be a major cause for concern to both the premier and the Liberal leader as they fight for their political lives. For Lantz, the results come on the heels of a brutal legislative session as the government jumped from crisis to crisis, and another Narrative Research poll that showed only a 16 per cent satisfaction rating, the lowest of any premier in the region.

That fact he is already assuring Islanders he intends to lead the party into the next election despite only being premier since February is not a good sign. He can decide the timing of the vote, of course, but it must be held by October of 2027 at the latest. Byelection As for Mitchell, his future as leader could already have been decided by the time you read this.

A loss in the Cornwall-Meadowbank byelection on July 13 would bring his political comeback to a screeching halt. This is Mitchell’s second time trying to get the letters MLA back behind his name since he was elected leader in October of 2025. He lost in Georgetown-Pownal to Brendan Curran by 105 votes after leading for most of the night.

The close margin in the traditional Tory riding was enough to keep the hounds at bay and allow him to continue as leader. However, a loss in Cornwall-Meadowbank would be viewed much differently. Related Until the late Mark McLane won the seat for the Progressive Conservatives in a 2021 byelection, the riding was solidly in the Liberal camp.

It was the political fiefdom of Ron MacKinley (who represented the area for close to 30 years) and then Heath MacDonald, who resigned for a successful run as Malpeque MP. Will MacFarlane join a long list of leaders from all political stripes who saw a sure path to power disappear at the ballot box? Stay tuned for the answer.

Andy Walker is a long-time journalist and political commentator.